By Jordan A. Rothacker
To buy, or not to buy, is always the question. Common investor sentiments generally lean toward buy, supporting the old wisdom that real estate is always a good investment.
But is that really what we see in Georgia at the start of this new year? Recent winter weather has reminded us that listening to forecasts from experts can be a very good idea.
Here’s some context: On the last day of 2025, Zillow.com released an estimate that the median home value in the state is $325,887, down two percent over the last year.
This data comes from the Zillow Home Value Index, or VHVI. The homebuyer or idle, doom-scrolling home sales voyeur might be familiar with the Zillow “Zestimate” for a particular home’s value and potential pricing. It is through tracking these monthly changing estimates “across a wide variety of geographies and housing types” in a program called the “neural Zestimate”—launched in 2021 and used in all ZHVI’s since January 2023—that the ZHVI is determined.
If the housing market is down two percent from where it was a year ago one might worry that this could be a trend. With everything else going on in the world, we might expect to see a further decline in market value for housing in the state. But how accurate is this “Zestimate”?
In contrast to the data from Zillow, the Georgia Association of Realtors (GAR) has released its own 2025 annual report comparing year end data to what we saw at the end of 2024.
The report reads: “Comparing indicators to the 2024 year-end reports, Median Sales Price held steady at $360,000, while Average Sales Price showed a modest increase to $448,554 (+2 percent). Pending Sales dipped 1.4 percent (123,212) and Closed Sales slipped 1.1 percent (123,440).”
This data is more detailed and less dire than what a quick Google search will show you on the Zillow site.
Brianne Drake, the 2026 President of the Georgia Association of Realtors, said in the report, “I think it’s accurate to say that Georgia’s housing market is moving toward balance between buyers and sellers, and away from the red-hot seller’s market that we’ve seen in recent years.”
Drake continued, “While more inventory has come on the market throughout the state, we still have a way to go before we describe inventory as plentiful.”
Quinn Arnau, the President of the Atlanta Realtors Association, shared a similar optimism on the data to his colleagues at GAR.
“The recent Georgia Realtors Annual Report pins the median home sales price at $360,000 representing a flat 0 percent year over year return for homeowners,” Arnau said. “There is no better indicator of market values than the most current data on what consumers are actually paying for homes.”
While Arnau said early signs for the Atlanta Metro indicate “we could be seeing a move into a more competitive market as buyers return due to more stable and consistent interest rates,” he added qualifiers:
“What must be considered in 2026 is that individual submarkets in Georgia are highly nuanced and demand is not even across the board,” Arnau said. ‘Consumers are best served working with a Realtor who not only understands data but also has the network to collect the latest and most complete information.”
While not all Georgia cities or counties are created equal when it comes to housing, the report from the Georgia Association of Realtors sees potential growth in other metro areas beyond Atlanta.
Columbus posted the largest Median Price gain at 10.3 percent, while Macon posted the second highest increase at 5.6 percent, according to the report. Savannah posted the most significant increase of inventory at 29.6 percent, while Macon posted the second highest increase at 25.1 percent.
As far as policy goes, the most exciting news involving the housing market happened on Jan. 28, 2026, when Georgia House Republicans filed a resolution for a constitutional amendment. HB 1114 would eliminate property tax for homeowners by 2032 with a gradual increase in the homesteader exemption until then.
The enabling legislation has yet to be proposed, but it was suggested that the difference of funds could be corrected through raising sales tax in each affected jurisdiction. There is a lot to still work out in this proposal, but just filing the resolution already has people talking. It could have a major impact on the housing market.
Georgia Association of Realtors CEO Brad Mock said it could provide relief for many homebuyers.
“The need for housing access continues to have the largest impact on Georgians looking to buy their first home or move into their last home,” Mock said. “Local housing mandates that are unrelated to safety drive up the cost of construction and ultimately the price of the home.
Mock continued, “These increased costs disqualify many first-time homebuyers and also seniors looking to downsize, while also increasing the collective property tax burden on individuals. The arbitrary constraints on supply are then magnified by seemingly ever-increasing property taxes in many areas.”
At the Georgia Association of Realtors, Mock said they are glad to see steps taken toward “property tax relief and hope to see an increased focus on housing access through increased supply.”
But Arnau said the proposed amendment has “a long path towards passage.”
“If the legislation as proposed became law, Georgia legislators would then have more flexibility to further provide property tax relief for Georgia homeowners,” Arnau said. “If those changes are as great as some have discussed, the effects on our housing market could be quite profound.”
Arnau laid it out – property taxes vary from area to area, so relief would not be relatively consistent. Instead, areas with high property taxes would gain relative affordability driving demand into markets until a new equilibrium was reached.
“What is difficult to determine is the eventual effect on school funding. Schools are a major driver in housing decisions,” Arnau said. “Faced with the loss of property tax revenue, school systems would need funding from different sources and local impact would be heavily determined by how each area chooses to handle that change.”
There are not clear answers for the proposed resolution yet. But Arnau said the current real estate market in Georgia is poised for a “more active market” in 2026, as market and rate stability will help align buyer and seller expectations.
“This year’s market will benefit the dedicated and experienced professional who understands market trends and observes them in real time,” Arnau said.
It appears the easiest, quickest, and most common indicator for current housing market activity, the Zillow website, might be casting a darker shadow over our current situation in Georgia than is accurate. Talking to experts on the ground in real estate brings a little more light to a market at a very dynamic inflection point, but one that seems poised for growth.
So, whether we see the greater balance between seller and buyer that Drake suggests, or heightened competition out of this new stability of interest rates as suggested by Arnau, the future for the Georgia housing market in 2026 looks bright, especially as we keep an eye on HB 1114.
